GCSE predicted grades: how teachers predict and how a timed paper gives your own estimate

What are GCSE predicted grades?

A predicted grade is the grade your school expects you to get. Your teachers decide it, and schools differ in how, so ask your teacher what evidence they use and when it will be updated. UCAS, which collects predicted grades for A-level applicants, sets out principles that make a good model for any prediction: it should be based on demonstrable evidence of performance, informed by professional judgement and set independently of what you hope to do next. For GCSEs there is no single national method, which is one reason your own estimate is worth making.

Why predicted grades and results can differ

The real grade comes from boundaries, and Ofqual says boundaries are set after students have taken the assessments and marking is nearly complete. Exam boards set them, and there is no cap on the number of students who can get a particular grade. The boundaries change to reflect how hard each paper was, so the same mark can be a different grade in a different year. These are AQA's boundaries for grade 4, in marks, in June 2025 and June 2026:

A teacher cannot know the boundary in advance. A grade 4 in Trilogy Higher moved by 15 marks out of 420 in a year, and a Foundation Biology grade 4 moved by 6 marks out of 200. A prediction is a best guess within that range. Our AQA GCSE grade boundaries 2026 guide has every boundary.

Make your own estimate with a timed paper

Add up your marks, divide by the total, and compare the share with the cut-offs for your tier. Our papers use these typical cut-offs, which sit within the range of AQA's June 2026 boundaries for Maths, Biology, Chemistry and Physics:

For example, 21 marks out of 30 is 70%, a grade 7 on the Higher tier, 9 percentage points above the grade 7 line and 2 below the grade 8 line. On the Foundation tier, 70% is a grade 4, five points under the 5.

Real boundaries vary by subject. On AQA's Higher papers, the share of marks for a grade 4 and a grade 7 over 2025 and 2026 was:

So a Higher Maths student on 26.3% sat on the grade 4 line in both years, while a Higher Physics student needed 35.0% in 2025 and 33.5% in 2026. Use the table to see how much room a subject leaves.

Your estimate against the national picture

For context, 21.8% of GCSE results in England in 2026 were grade 7 or above and 67.0% were grade 4 or above, from Ofqual's and JCQ's published results. See GCSE grades explained for each grade.

Use today's paper to see your grade

Sit today's paper on our GCSE papers, such as Maths Higher, Maths Foundation, Physics Higher or Biology Higher. It is a short timed paper of 8 questions worth 25 to 35 marks, not a full exam board paper. When you mark it, the results page shows a predicted grade and the marks needed for each grade. Those cut-offs are typical ones, not an exam board's: on the Higher tier, grade 4 starts at 28% of the marks and grade 7 at 61%, and on the Foundation tier grade 4 starts at 60%. A real board's boundaries move from year to year, so treat the prediction as a guide.

How to turn a prediction into a plan

1. Sit a paper every few days and average the results. A run of results is a better guide than one paper. The Mean, Median and Mode Calculator will average them.
2. Look at the gap to the next grade in marks, not in grades. On AQA Higher in 2026 the step from a grade 4 to a grade 5 was 34 marks in Maths, 18 in Biology, 25 in Chemistry and 20 in Physics.
3. Aim a few marks above the grade you need, to cover a harder paper.
4. Ask your teacher to compare your estimate with their prediction, and what would move it.

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