A-level predicted grades: how they are made, how accurate they are and how to raise yours

What are A-level predicted grades?

UCAS defines a predicted grade as the grade of qualification an applicant's school or college believes they are likely to achieve in positive circumstances. Your school or college sets it, not you, and it goes into your UCAS reference. Universities and colleges see it alongside your application, and when your results arrive they make a final decision on whether to accept you, based on a variety of factors.

How predicted grades are made

UCAS's guidance to schools sets out the principles:

• Achievable, based on demonstrable evidence of performance. Advisers can draw on past performance, internal assessments or current student work.
• Professional judgement. UCAS says teachers' expertise and experience are vital in informing predictions.
• Independent of your choices. A prediction should be set independently of the universities or colleges you apply to.
• Complete and final at submission. Predictions are needed for all pending qualifications and must be finalised by the time the application is submitted.

UCAS also tells schools to set clear expectations, to make their approach to predicting grades transparent, and to give students their predictions early enough to research courses. A teacher can record any extenuating circumstances in section 2 of the reference. Ask your school how it makes predictions and when you will see yours.

How accurate are predicted grades?

UCAS says the gap between predicted and achieved grades has widened over the long term, especially at the top grades, and that it is unlikely we will move to a situation where students always achieve their predicted grades. The figures it gives for AAA and above are:

Ofqual's blog on the 2024 results adds that it is normal for many students to miss their UCAS predicted grades, and that when the results are in, universities make a final decision based on a variety of factors.

What the grades you get look like

To see what a prediction asks of you, look at how the actual results are spread. In the UK in 2026, JCQ reports 9.6% of A level entries at A*, 28.5% at A* or A, 55.8% at B or above and 78.4% at C or above. See A-level grades explained for each grade with its UCAS points.

How to raise your predicted grade

1. Ask your teacher what evidence they use and what would move the prediction up.
2. Treat your next assessment as the evidence, since UCAS says predictions rest on demonstrable evidence of performance.
3. Fix the topics where you drop marks, and redo them under time. Practise with timed papers, such as A-level mocks and a daily paper, and track your marks.
4. Tell your teacher about any circumstances that affected a result, which they can record in the reference.

Use today's paper to see your grade

Sit today's paper on our A-level papers, such as A-level Maths: Algebra and Functions, A-level Physics: Year 1, A-level Chemistry: Year 1 or A-level Biology: Year 1. It is a short timed paper of 8 questions worth 25 to 35 marks, not a full exam board paper. When you mark it, the results page shows a predicted grade and the marks needed for each grade. The cut-offs are typical ones, not an exam board's: A* from 80% of the marks, A from 70%, B from 60%, C from 50%, D from 40% and E from 30%. Real boundaries differ by board, paper and year, so treat the prediction as a guide.

One short paper is a rough guide to your grade, and a run of results is a better one. Average several days with the Mean, Median and Mode Calculator.

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